Democrats think Biden’s out, and a new nominee would shake things up. Maybe.
By Tony Marsh
This election campaign is the weirdest in my lifetime, and it just keeps getting weirder. In the few weeks since the debate Democrat prospects have been crushed while Republicans unity and momentum have reached stratospheric levels.
The top line…
It seems likely Biden will drop out of the presidential race within the next week or so. If that happens, and Democrats nominate a younger, more attractive, and arguably more centrist candidate; this race changes dramatically in one startling instant.
The backstory…
- Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) met with Biden privately last weekend at Biden’s Delaware home to explain why he should exit the presidential race. House Democrat Leader, Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) did the same a few days earlier. They and other Democrat leaders are quietly assuring major donors that Biden will drop out within the next week or so.
- The 81-year-old president has had one of the worst months imaginable in the history of presidential politics. A disastrous debate, a series of failed media appearances, multiple democrat defections, negative editorials by heretofore media apologists, the desertion of his biggest financial supporters, disastrous poll results, and, now, a covid diagnosis that’s made him even slower and more frail.
- Trump, on the other hand, has enjoyed one of the best months conceivable. A strong, stately, debate; a disciplined campaign; an atypical caution about inserting himself into Biden’s troubles; a failed assassination attempt that produced an iconic image of strength and resilience; and a well produced Republican convention.
- Polls show Biden political deterioration beyond repair.
- Barring something changing, Democrat leaders now see a likely Trump landslide and a campaign armageddon that costs them massive losses in the Senate and House.
- An AP poll this past Wednesday showed two-thirds of Democrat voters want Biden to drop out of the presidential race.
- Previously suppressed antipathy between the Biden’s and the Obama’s is now coming to the fore with Obama’s closest advisors openly trashing Biden.
- Likewise, Bill and Hillary Clinton are in hiding while their former operatives insist Biden must go.
- Biden has started asking his campaign aids whether polls show Kamala can win against Trump.
Democrat inclinations are to go with Kamala Harris. First, they’re reluctant to drop a black woman who is considered the “next in line” by substantial elements of their base.
Second, it’s expected the Obamas, Clintons, and Biden will all join the Congressional Black Caucus in supporting Harris. If that happens, it would be nearly impossible to resist her nomination.
Finally, the $300 million plus funds in the Biden Harris campaign fund would not be available to a nominee other than Biden or Harris.
The bottom line …
Biden is expected to bow to intense pressure by panicked Democrats to drop out and endorse Kamala Harris to take his place. Still, Harris is even less popular in most polls than Biden so a coronation isn’t certain.
Many Democrat leaders suggest a new face and an open convention would galvanize national attention, provide the new alternative most voters want, and stimulate massive excitement among Democrat and independent voters and donors.
It depends who Democrats nominate, but this election is not yet in the bag for Republicans.